On the advantage side, my short article presumed that we might rapidly make countless doses readily available prior to Phase 3 trials finished. I was incorrect there too. We can and ought to ramp up production of vaccines before Phase 3 trials are over– and several producers are doing simply that, with government support. However these vaccines arent readily available in big quantities yet, and by the time they are, Phase 3 trials will be much further along.
I was incorrect. After reading a lot of the actions to my short article, some of them describing the dangers in greater detail, I have concluded that (1) the risks are higher than I presented them, and (2) the benefits are not as terrific as I had thought.
Disclaimer: the material on this website is my personal viewpoint and is independent of my affiliation with Johns Hopkins University.
Something Ive found out as a researcher is that if you get something wrong, you need to admit it, find out from the experience, and carry on. I was wrong.
I wrote a post over the weekend that has produced incredible pushback, including an op-ed in the New York Times as well as thousands of discuss Twitter.
One is that although phase 1 and 2 trials develop security, they dont inform the entire story. Phase 3 likewise looks at safety, and because lots of more topics are included, Phase 3 can recognize less-common side results that may still be very bad.
In my previous post, I suggested that while were pursuing Phase 3 screening of several promising Covid-19 vaccines, we might all at once offer those exact same, unapproved vaccines to a larger community of volunteers, as long as those volunteers were totally informed. The benefits of moving rapidly, I argued, would outweigh the dangers.
Another risk is that of trust: as lots of people mentioned on Twitter, if we broaden the distribution of vaccines too quickly, and after that the vaccine does not work, we might seriously weaken the general publics trust in any eventual vaccine that really does work. That in turn will minimize the number of people willing to be vaccinated, which might trigger major harm to public health.
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Phase 3 likewise looks at security, and because numerous more topics are included, Phase 3 can determine less-common side impacts that may still be extremely bad. On the advantage side, my short article presumed that we might rapidly make millions of dosages offered before Phase 3 trials finished. We can and should ramp up production of vaccines prior to Phase 3 trials are over– and a number of manufacturers are doing just that, with federal government support. These vaccines arent offered in large amounts yet, and by the time they are, Phase 3 trials will be much even more along.