If youre going out to meet a group of 10 people in someones yard in San Francisco tonight, the possibilities that one of those individuals will be currently infected with the coronavirus is 15 percent. Raise the group number to 25, and the possibility rises to 34 percent.
These are the estimates being made in a brand-new, interactive data-mapping tool from Georgia Tech, highlighted today by the Chronicle and others. It takes publicly readily available data on COVID-19 frequency in every county in the U.S., and it extrapolates that into a map that shows where its most dangerous to gather together in groups of various sizes. As the group discusses, disease occurrence has been multiplied by 10, offered that the CDC thinks that– usually– actual case numbers have to do with 10 times higher than are presently being evaluated and counted.
The team acknowledges that in counties where screening is extensively readily available, the frequency multiplier might be a lot lower– which is likely the case in San Francisco, though absolutely nothing is for particular.
The tool reveals simply how unsafe a group of 50 or more individuals is for illness transmission in the Bay Area, at present. If you raise the meter to 50, the chances of a contaminated person being there are 56 percent in San Francisco, and about the very same in the East Bay and South Bay. Raise the occasion size to 100, and there is an 80-percent or higher chance you will have a COVID-person there in almost every Bay Area County.
In Los Angeles County, in groups of 50 individuals, you d have an 87-percent opportunity of discovering an infected person right now. In New York City, where case counts have slowed significantly considering that the spring, youre looking at a 25-percent possibility in groups of 50, and in Chicago its currently a 50-percent opportunity.
” We desire individuals to be notified about the risk– that its genuine, its elevated, and lots of people may be asymptomatic,” states one of the tools creators, life sciences professor Joshua Weitz, speaking to the Chronicle. “It reinforces the requirement to wear masks.”
Case counts may or might not be slowing down in numerous parts of California, nevertheless a technical issue with the states lab-reporting tool presently has these totals being undercounted, as we found out the other day.
So where your masks! And if you are going to the park or to a backyard BBQ, understand that theres a good possibility among your pals or friends of buddies might be contaminated!
It takes openly offered data on COVID-19 prevalence in every county in the U.S., and it extrapolates that into a map that shows where its most dangerous to gather in groups of various sizes. The tool reveals simply how unsafe a group of 50 or more people is for illness transmission in the Bay Area, at present. Raise the event size to 100, and there is an 80-percent or greater possibility you will have a COVID-person there in almost every Bay Area County.