The regular influenza does the majority of its eliminating in the December-March timeframe, a year after it first emerges. I think Covid will be flatter than that, and instead of having a significant December-March peak, it will stay fairly consistent all winter season. If we continue to see approximately 1200 people a day die up until March 31, 2021, that would be another 300,000 people, bringing the counted total to about 465,000. With a correction factor of 1.25, that would be 581,000 deaths, practically like the flu. Oh wait, quite much like the flu times 20.
For Covid, so far they have actually determined 165,000 deaths. At the end of the flu season, next April, they will recall and approximate the degree of undercounting for Covid, and approximate an adjustment. Based upon the data up until now, I anticipate that aspect will come out about 1.2-1.3. That would imply that the existing death number of 165,000 would wind up being 198-214,000.
What most people seem oblivious to is that for the flu, the CDC is only able to recognize about 5,000 deaths annually as actual influenza deaths. They know that count is low, so at the end of the year, they change the count by a correction factor. For the influenza, the correction aspect is usually about 5 or a bit more, so the turn the 5,000 deaths they actually recognized into 25,000.
Outstanding article. It has to be obvious to anybody that considers it that if you attempt to particularly count all people who passed away of “blank”, whatever blank is, you are going to be low. For the majority of things you are going to be very, very low.